ICI-23 - Decision, Risk and Bayes' Analysis
In order to make ideal decisions, you have to be able to quantify the effects of your decisions and your goal criteria!
 Among the many tasks of CI analysts and managers is support of decision-making and active involvement in strategic and operative processes. Good decisions are based on the realistic assessment of uncertainties and risks, the identification of one’s own alternatives and ascertaining the effects on one’s own company. For the solution of complex decision tasks, with numerous, reciprocally influencing decision parameters and non-deterministic consequences, the structured approach of “decision and risk analysis” is of high value in practical experience. |
Forecast on further methods and final discussion
Workshop foci
Fundamentals of risk- and decision modelling
- What are risks and uncertainties?
- Monte Carlo simulations
- Impact diagrams and decision trees
- Presentation of results
- Planning and realization of decision analysis projects
Introduction into the fundamentals of probability theory and statistics
- Probability distributions
- Conversion of observations and expert evaluations into distributions
- Correlations and conditional dependencies
Case study 1: Risk analysis of a product introduction
- Approaches to problem structuring
- Analysis (Monte Carlo simulation)
- Interpretation of results (risk profile, sensitivity analyses)
- Value of further Intelligence
Case study 2: Investment decision with and without intelligence
- Approaches to problem structuring
- Analysis of the decision situation
- Presentation of results: Optimal decision strategy for the given risk preference
Forecast on further methods and final discussion
- Open questions and feedback
More Information
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